The escalation of the Middle East conflict is causing ‘demand diversion’ in key global source markets, against a backdrop of sharply deteriorating security perception across Gulf states and neighbouring destinations.
The findings are from travel Intelligence firm Mabrian which analysed behaviour from Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and the US.
In the month to 04 Mar, there was a pronounced deterioration in travellers’ safety sentiment, with varying intensity by country to Gulf states.
Following the 28 Feb attack on Iran, Bahrain and Oman suffered the biggest fall in the perception of safety whereas Qatar, alongside the UAE and Saudi Arabia, has begun to partially absorb and stabilise the shock.
Egypt, Jordan and Türkiye are experiencing a spillover or ‘contagion effect’ because of their geographical proximity.
. . . Where To Now?
Mabrian says its forecast for early 2026 already showed Western Asia was gaining most market share for travel. Direct air connectivity was boosting interest in destinations such as Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines. There was also a growing inclination to remain closer to home.
This tendency is particularly evident among German travellers— who are prioritising destinations such as Morocco and Greece— alongside Italians, whose interest is shifting towards Croatia, the Czech Republic, Norway and Spain.
British travellers are showing a similar pattern, with Malta, Morocco, and Montenegro gaining prominence as alternative options.
. . . Further Afield
There are several long-haul destinations that are emerging as potential substitutes.
Among British travellers it is South Africa and the Maldives that are gaining traction, while it is Latin American destinations that are attracting the attention of travellers from France, Italy, Germany and the US.
