Global air travel demand is set to surge over the coming years, despite current uncertainties, as new IATA projections show global air passenger demand is expected to more than double by 2050.
IATA’s Long Term Demand Projections show that, in the mid-range scenario, demand will rise from nine trillion revenue passenger kms (RPKs) in 2024 to 20.8 trillion in 2050.
Willie Walsh, IATA director general, says under all of its modelled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century. “The outlook for air travel is positive,” he says.
“That is good news for global eco nomic and social development because aviation growth will catalyse opportunities, including jobs, around the world.”
Even in a low growth scenario, demand is slated to rise to 19.5 trillion RPKs by 2050, while the high growth scenario predicts passenger demand reaching 21.9 trillion RPKs in 2050.
While long-term demand remains robust, the growth rate is moderating, going from 6.1% compound annual growth rate 1972-1998 to 4.5% rate 1998-2024, and this is expected to drop again to 3.1% for 2024-2025.
This moderation isn’t necessarily a bad thing though, as it is attributed to market maturity rather than weakening demand, as absolute passenger numbers continue to rise significantly.
. . . APAC Leading
It will come as no surprise that Asia Pacific is among the fastest growing markets, with the projection stating that the region is likely to maintain its dominant position in terms of its share of the global total RPK in 2050, followed by North America and Europe.
In fact, by 2050, Asia Pacific RPKs will almost equal that of Europe and North America combined.
The report states outbound RPKs generated from the Asia Pacific region are projected to increase to 8400 billion in 2050, while North America and Europe are both expected to see outbound RPKs rise to 4500 billion.
Asia Pacific and Africa are expected to be the fastest growing regions over 2024-2050, with compound annual growth rates of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively, while Europe and North America will grow more slowly, at 2.5% and 2.8%.
Read the IATA Long-Term Air Transport Passenger Demand Projections report HERE.
