Supply chain constraints and production limitations are likely to be further aggravated by tariffs, meaning aircraft deliveries are now lagging 30% behind their peak levels, says IATA.
At present production rates and given the record-high backlog, the ‘implied waiting time’ for delivery is approximately 14 years—putting the four-year delay Air New Zealand faces for its next 787s into perspective. IATA says that with fewer aircraft entering the market, leasing rates for older models have risen, and prices for new aircraft on the secondary market are also climbing. The average age of aircraft has increased from 13 to 15 years over the past decade, leading to higher maintenance costs and increased average fuel consumption, IATA says. While airlines have replaced 5%-6% of their fleets each year historically, this pace has nearly halved since 2020. Delays in aircraft deliveries complicate short-term capacity planning and can lead to inefficiencies. Carriers in some parts of the world are even forced to operate larger aircraft, resulting in empty seats.
. . . Deliveries Down
Aircraft deliveries fell by 8% year-on-year in 2024, when a total of 1266 aircraft were delivered. This number is well below the peak level seen in 2018 at 1813. Traffic levels, however, have surpassed those seen in 2018 and 2019. In 2025, 1,692 aircraft are expected to be delivered. Although this would mark the highest level since 2018, it is almost 26% lower than estimates made a year ago for this year. And further downward revisions are likely, given that supply chain concerns are expected to persist in 2025 and possibly to the end of the decade.
. . . Backlog
The backlog of aircraft orders reached a record high of 17,000 aircraft as of the end of 2024, compared to a more habitual backlog of between 10,000 and 11,000 in previous years, says IATA. In addition to the delivery delays, engine problems and a shortage of spare parts exacerbate the situation and have caused record-high groundings of certain aircraft types. A significant portion of these grounded aircraft—69%—are equipped with PW1000G engines, the same type that is keeping some NZ planes grounded.
