Global airline bottom line profits are forecast to reach US36 billion this year, up from USD32.4b last year as jet fuel prices fall.
IATA says the price of jet fuel has fallen 13% compared to 2024, and is 1% below previous estimates. Airlines are flying more people and more cargo this year than they did in 2024, even if previous demand projections have been dented by trade tensions and falls in consumer confidence. But IATA warns of geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with the most significant risks to the industry outlook including:
Conflict: The resolution of conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war would have a benefit for airlines in reconnecting de-linked economies and reopening airspace. Any expansion of military activity could have a dampening effect.
Trade tensions: Tariffs and prolonged trade wars dampen demand for air cargo and potentially travel. Uncertainty over how the Trump Administration’s trade policies will evolve could hold back demand for air cargo and business travel.
Fragmentation: Global standards are critical for aviation and the weakening of multilateral institutions and agreements could bring additional costs to airlines with a more complex or unstable regulatory environment.
Oil prices: The complex factors impacting oil prices can produce quick shifts in pricing.
. . . Locally
While global airline profits are heading up, Air New Zealand has forecast a fall in earnings from $220 million to between $150m and $190m this year.
